Europe's airline capacity begins slow climb

Total seat numbers in Europe are down 84.6% year-on-year in the week of 18-May-2020, according to schedules from OAG combined with CAPA Fleet Database seat configurations.

This is almost 2ppts narrower than the previous week's 86.5% drop and the smallest rate of decline since Mar-2020. Nevertheless, it is the seventh successive week of cuts broadly in the -85% to -90% range.

Europe's cuts are no longer the world's deepest. That distinction now belongs to Latin America, where seats have dropped by 88.7% year-on-year. Seats are down by 80.8% in Middle East, 80.5% in Africa, 78.7% in North America and 51.6% in Asia Pacific. The rate of fall is narrowing in the three big regions – Asia Pacific, Europe and North America – but widening in the others.

Data based on filed schedules indicate that European aviation may be at the beginning of a slow rebuilding of capacity.

However, plans by Ryanair, IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM imply that capacity for Europe's leading groups will still be reduced by around 50%-80% in Jul-2020. Even those plans are based on the lifting of restrictions.

Summary:

• Europe: 5.1 million seats vs 33.4 million a year ago – a fall of 85%. Europe no longer has the deepest cut (Latin America is now falling faster).
• The U-shaped recovery is still widening, with Jun-2020 capacity falling, but Jul-2020 scheduled capacity has increased.
• Schedules for Europe's big five airline groups are way ahead of likely reality this summer. There will be further cuts to filed schedules.

View more here: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/europes-airline-capacity-begins-slow-climb-525222