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CAPA - Centre for Aviation

  • Type: Informa

Iberia returns to Tokyo, sees potential in Asia Pacific nonstops

On 27-Oct-2024 Iberia restored its service from Madrid to Tokyo Narita, which it had ceased at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mar-2020.

Iberia is the sole operator on the route, the longest in its network and its only one in Asia Pacific.

The success of Iberia's Doha service, launched in Dec-2023 and offering onward connections with its oneworld partner Qatar Airways, has provided a window on the strength of demand for Spain-Asia Pacific air travel.

Iberia focuses its long haul network on Latin America, and this is unlikely to diminish. However, Asia Pacific nonstops are underserved from Spain, and Iberia is attracted by the significant potential for expanding capacity to the region.

Summary

  • Iberia serves Tokyo three times weekly, with A350-900s flying a round-the-world trip. The route will bring economic and tourism benefits.
  • Latin America is Iberia’s biggest long haul region, while Tokyo is now its only Asia Pacific destination.
  • British Airways provides all the rest of IAG's Asia Pacific capacity, but IAG is underweight in the region versus major European rivals, particularly Turkish Airlines.
  • Iberia’s Doha service connects with its partner Qatar Airways' large Asia Pacific network, but many competing connecting hubs are available.
  • Iberia aims to increase its Asia Pacific nonstops, a market with huge potential.

Iberia serves Tokyo three times weekly, with A350-900s…

Iberia's three times weekly service from Madrid Barajas Airport to Tokyo Narita relaunched on 27-Oct-2024, at the start of the winter schedule.

It deploys A350-900 aircraft with 352 seats in a three cabin configuration (293 in economy, 28 in premium economy, and 31 in business class).

…flying a round-the-world trip

The outbound flight is 14 hours and the return is 16 hours. Both flights travel east, so the aircraft completes a circumnavigation of the world, due to the closure of Russian airspace and the direction of winds.

This requires a doubling of the flight crew to four pilots and 10 cabin crew (including at least three who are Japanese).

The route will bring economic and tourism benefits

Iberia has the support of Spain's government, the Madrid City Council and Spanish tourist organisations.

Luis Martín Izquierdo of the Community of Madrid said, "The launch of this route is a key step in our positioning as a destination in Asia, a key part of our strategy aimed at attracting high-value tourists".

It has been estimated that the route will generate EUR100 million in GDP for both countries, and create approximately 1,900 direct and indirect jobs.

According to 'Turespaña', Japanese visitors to Spain are valued for their above average spending, and their high interest in Spanish art and culture.

Iberia served Tokyo 2016 to 2020 as sole operator, as it is again now

This is Iberia's second spell flying to Tokyo.

It originally launched Tokyo services with three weekly frequencies to Narita in Oct-2016, increasing to five times weekly in Oct-2018.

However, it withdrew in Mar-2020 at the start of the COVID-19 crisis.

It was the sole operator on the route during that period - as it is again now, after the relaunch.

It also served Shanghai from 2016 to 2020

Iberia's only other Asian route of recent years was Madrid to Shanghai Pudong, operated three times weekly between Jun-2016 and Mar-2020. It was competing with China Eastern Airlines, which operated four times weekly on the route for most of that time.

Unlike Iberia, the Chinese operator returned to the route in Jun-2023 as the COVID-19 pandemic subsided, this time with a 12 times weekly service.

Latin America is Iberia's biggest long haul region

Iberia's only Asia Pacific destination is now Tokyo.

Its long haul network is strongly focused on Latin America, where it has more than twice the seat capacity that it offers to other long haul regions.

Its strength in Latin America derives from Spain's cultural and linguistic ties to the region, and the location of its Madrid hub in Europe's southwest.

According to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAGLatin America accounts for 25.8% of Iberia's international departing seats in the week of 4-Nov-2024.

Europe accounts for 60.0%, but its next biggest long haul region, North America, accounts for only 8.5%.

Asia Pacific, which currently just means the Tokyo service, represents 0.5% of international departing seats.

ASK capacity gives a better indication of the importance of each region to Iberia's revenue.

Latin America accounts for 59.9% of its international ASKs, whereas Europe is only 20.1%.

North America is 15.2% and Asia Pacific is 1.4% (the same as the Middle East).

Iberia: international ASKs by region, week of 4-Nov-2024

Source: CAPA - Centre for AviationOAG.

British Airways provides all the rest of IAG's Asia Pacific capacity

With the exception of Iberia's Tokyo Narita service, British Airways currently provides the parent group, IAG, with its only Asia Pacific routes.

British Airways has 13 destinations in the region, which accounts for 15.6% of its international ASKs in the week of 4-Nov-2024. Destinations include Tokyo Haneda and Shanghai Pudong.

The UK airline's most important region by ASKs is North America, which represents 38.4% of its international capacity.

By contrast with IberiaLatin America accounts for only 11.2% of British Airways' international ASKs (almost half of this to the Caribbean).

IAG is underweight in Asia, compared with major European rivals

According to CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG data, Asia Pacific accounts for only 7.0% of IAG's total ASKs scheduled for 2024. This is low by comparison with the other major European legacy airline groups.

Asia Pacific accounts for 14.8% of Air France-KLM's ASKs scheduled for this year, and 16.4% of Lufthansa Group's.

In absolute terms, IAG's total ASKs to Asia Pacific are scheduled to be only a little more than half the level of its two major European rival groups in 2024 (data source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation/OAG).

Leading European airline groups: share of their annual ASKs on routes to Asia Pacific, 2023 and 2024

Source: CAPA - Centre for AviationOAG.

Turkish Airlines is the biggest operator by Europe-Asia Pacific ASKs

All three rank behind Turkish Airlines, which is the biggest group by ASKs between Europe and Asia Pacific - the region accounts for 25.9% of Turkish Airlines' 2024 scheduled ASKs.

Lufthansa Group and Air France-KLM are second and third respectively, while IAG is down in seventh place by ASKs between Europe and Asia Pacific in 2024.

Air ChinaSingapore Airlines and Aeroflot rank above IAG.

IAGAir France-KLM and Lufthansa Group are all offering between 70% and 80% of their 2019 ASKs to Asia Pacific in 2024.

By contrast, Turkish Airlines is offering 141%, while the Europe-Asia Pacific market overall is at 92% of 2019 ASKs in 2024.

Europe to Asia Pacific: top 8 airline groups by ASKs, 2024

Group

ASKs in 2024

Turkish Airlines

30,602,034,062

Lufthansa Group

26,496,243,805

Air France-KLM

24,107,288,509

Air China

21,114,498,297

Singapore Airlines

17,747,813,388

Aeroflot

14,044,903,291

IAG

12,554,367,908

China Eastern Airlines

12,370,734,479

Source: CAPA - Centre for AviationOAG.

Iberia's Doha service connects with its partner Qatar Airways' large Asia Pacific network…

Iberia's Tokyo service follows its launch of flights to Doha in 2023.

At Doha its passengers can connect to Asia Pacific destinations with Qatar Airways, which is a codeshare partner, a fellow oneworld member, and 25% shareholder in IAG.

Qatar Airways serves three airports in Spain - Málaga, Barcelona and Madrid - and 54 destinations in Asia Pacific.

…but many competing connecting hubs are available

However, passengers travelling between Spain and Asia Pacific destinations also have a wide range of other one-stop connecting options.

These include transferring via other Western European hubs and, in particular, the other major Gulf hubs and with Turkish Airlines.

Emirates Airline serves Barcelona and Madrid from Dubai and 45 destinations in Asia Pacific.

Etihad Airways serves the same two Spanish airports from Abu Dhabi and has 30 Asia Pacific destinations.

Turkish Airlines serves Bilbao, Barcelona and Madrid from Istanbul, and has 41 destinations in Asia Pacific.

Iberia aims to increase its Asia Pacific nonstops…

Iberia's Doha service has performed well and demonstrated the strength of demand for air travel between Spain and Asia Pacific destinations.

This has fuelled Iberia's desire to expand its nonstop presence in Asia Pacific. With only one direct flight.

As a next step, Iberia plans to increase its weekly Tokyo frequencies to five times weekly in 2025, but there is a very large number of destinations in Asia Pacific with no direct connections to Spain.

…which is an underserved market with huge potential for Iberia

The nonstop Spain-Asia Pacific market would appear to be underserved: in the week of 4-Nov-2024, there are only 16 direct routes.

Only three of these routes (Madrid-Beijing, Barcelona-Seoul and Madrid-Shanghai) have frequencies of daily or more.

Eight of the 16 routes - half of them - are to cities in China (including Hong Kong).

Direct flights between Spain and Asia Pacific serve only 13 airports and eight countries (ChinaSouth KoreaIndiaJapanSingaporeThailandKazakhstan and Uzbekistan) in Asia Pacific.

The potential for Iberia in Spain-Asia Pacific nonstops is huge.