The Race for Deliveries – China Trumps United States

Airbus edged out Boeing in the annual aircraft order competition for 2017, but where did all those orders end up? Aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2018 will have been ordered anywhere up to five years before delivery, when market conditions were different and fleet plans were susceptible to change.

The two largest markets for aircraft deliveries in 2018 will be the United States and China, but for entirely different reasons which highlight the shifting power base of the global aviation market. In absolute terms, the United States will receive 342 new aircraft this year compared to 327 in China – this equates to essentially one new aircraft a day in each market allowing for a few public holidays! In terms of manufacturer choice, Boeing has a clear lead as the chart below highlights, essentially delivering more than twice as many aircraft as Airbus.

From a delivery perspective, the United States remains a slightly larger market, but the crucial differentiator is in the purpose of the new deliveries. In the United States many of the planned deliveries will be to replace existing aircraft. For example, Delta Air Lines intends to use the majority of their 72 aircraft deliveries to replace existing aircraft in what they have described as a capacity neutral programme.

As the chart below illustrates, the spread of new deliveries across the major airlines in each market is very strong, with Delta scheduled to take delivery of a new aircraft every five days, which is ideal for avoiding weekend work. China Eastern is also expecting to take at least one new delivery each week of the year. However, the expected deliveries are broadly similar across the top five airlines in each market: 216 to the U.S. based carriers and 195 to the Chinese airlines. So, whilst orders are broadly in the same range, the intended purpose of that new capacity becomes significant in the race for the number one market position.

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