Africa's Liberalisation Slows

Much has been made of the Single African Air Transport Market Agreement (SAATM) signed in January 2018 and the hoped-for increases in air services within Africa, but the Summer 2019 schedules and analysis of the last five years suggests that there is still much work to be done.  

In an ironic twist given the new focus on liberalisation, intra-African capacity has fallen this IATA Summer season; Both frequency and capacity have declined compared to Summer 2018. Comparison with Summer 2014, a five-year time period, shows a 14% increase in capacity and a 36% increase in frequency. Accordingly, the average capacity per movement has moved from 105 seats in Summer 2014 to 89 this Summer, highlighting the use of smaller aircraft. Which suggest that the market may be becoming better at matching capacity to market sizes, especially in regional markets.

South Africa dominates the continental landscape with 15.3 million scheduled seats this Summer of which 12.7 million (83%) are operated on domestic sectors. With South Africa’s market three and a half times larger than its closest rival, Kenya, and accounting for some 26% of all intra-African capacity any changes in this market ripple through the whole continent. As such, the expected 2% reduction in capacity this Summer compared to last year may represent an early indication of a slowdown in capacity growth throughout the region. Indeed, year-on-year capacity declines in major country markets such as Nigeria (-24%), Tanzania (-24%) and Algeria (-6.1%) would all suggest that hoped for liberalisation is not yet translating into more capacity.